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Diagnosis and Prediction of Market Rebounds in Financial Markets
negative bubble rebound positive feedback pattern recognition trading strategy error diagram prediction Bayesian methods financial markets price forecasting
2010/4/27
We introduce the concept of "negative bubbles" as the mirror image of standard financial bubbles, in which positive feedback mechanisms may lead to transient accelerating price falls. To model these n...
Diagnosis and Prediction of Tipping Points in Financial Markets: Crashes and Rebounds
financial bubble crash negative bubble rebound
2010/10/18
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bi...